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Let’s talk about the 2023 housing market, why payments are skyrocketing, and what experts believe will happen throughout the rest of the year – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | Follow My Newsletter For The Latest Information: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter
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THE 2023 HOUSING MARKET:
A recent index found that “just 38.1% of homes sold between October and December were affordable to US families earning the median income of $90,000.” Because of that, just about every other location posted an average month-over-month decline of 0.4%.
Zillow also found something similar, noting that – “there were 16.7% fewer new listings than last January, and 29.8% fewer than in January 2021.” However, even though there are fewer listing coming on the market…the homes that DO come on the market, STAY on the market substantially longer…leading to a “19.4% increase in inventory, year over year.”
We’re also seeing a very similar shift in RENTS, with prices rising at the smallest pace in almost 2 YEARS.
As Redfin explains, “price growth is slowing due to increasing supply and waning demand,” with rents falling as much as 6.7% in areas like Phoenix – simply because – more people are becoming landlords.
Homeowners are currently able to charge a high rent, relative to a low mortgage rate – and, equivalent properties are impossible to find – at the same monthly payment. That means, as long as they’re not cash-flow negative…homeowners can afford just to RENT their property, with the mindset that – they’ll be able to hold out long enough for the market to recover.
Although, on a more positive note – depending on who you listen to, the overall impact PROBABLY won’t be THAT bad.
For example, Goldman Sachs expect national home prices to end 2023 down just 2.6%, with a TOTAL peak-to-trough decline of only 6%. As they explained: One, there’s a LOT of untapped equity acting as a buffer, so VERY few borrowers would be underwater on their loan. Second, 90% of mortgages are at a fixed interest rate, so – payments will stay the exact same. And third, people aren’t over-leveraged like they were back in 2008.
CoreLogic even believes that home prices will still INCREASE by 2.8% this year, simply because there’s a massive shortage of inventory – and, only a few markets risk seeing more than a 10% decline from where we are now – so, for all intents and purposes, we’re most likely not seeing anything CLOSE to what happened throughout the Great Financial Crisis.
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