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Lets talk about the 2023 housing market, why homes sales just had the worst drop – on record, and what you could expect throughout the next 12 months, according to analysts – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
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National Association Of Realtors outlook for 2023:
They believe that home values will be COMPLETELY unchanged from where they are, today – meaning, half the country may experience small price gains, while others could see small declines that level out the overall country. They also believe that mortgage rates will begin to decline, and likely settle around 5.7% by the end of the year…leading to a more normal housing market.
Realtor.com believes hat home prices will actually INCREASE by 5.4% throughout these next 12 months, driven by low inventory, but, they also say that buyers “will have more time to make a decision and more options.” However…they haven’t always been the most accurate, with last year’s forecast being off by more than 7%.
Zillow uses a slightly different forecast, and believes price declines will be moderate across the country, vacation destinations will likely take the biggest hit…and, most experts believe that 2023 will be the year where conditions begin to favor the buyer.
And finally – CoreLogic, forecasts that housing prices will continue rising by another 4.1% through October of 2023. Although, in fairness…they also adjust their numbers on an almost monthly basis, so, I’d take their predictions with a grain of salt.
In terms of overall housing values…the general consensus seems to be that: appreciation is local, and even though coastal markets are likely to see a 5-15% drop…some segments, like the luxury market, could take the biggest hit – with sales falling at the fastest pace since 2012.
Personally, though, as a landlord and real estate investor myself, I see 2023 as being a year where, we’re finally going to see the delayed affects from a slowing economy.
In terms of rents, I believe that – higher interest rates, weaker consumer spending, and continued layoffs are going to put a lot of pressure on landlords to either hang on to their current tenants, or second guess their planned rent increases…because, there’s probably going to be a lot more rental inventory coming available soon.
As far as home VALUES are concerned…I’ve said this before, but – home prices take a LONG TIME to adjust. When payments increase, only NEW home buyers are directly affected…everyone else, who’s already locked in, probably isn’t going to sell unless they absolutely have to…and, it’ll take at least 12-18 months to fully reflect a market value that buyers are willing to pay.
That’s why, I personally believe…a mild drop is probably the most likely scenario, with some speculative “hard hit” areas falling 10-25%…but, then again…as all of our data shows…absolutely NO ONE can predict the true impact of rising rates on the housing market…so, it’s best to only buy what you can afford, with a fixed rate mortgage, that you intend on holding for at least 7-10 years…and then…subscribe if you haven’t done that already….especially if you’re actually reading this 🙂
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