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MICHAEL BURRY WARNING:
First, he mentions that – as of now, more than 13% of stocks closed above their 200-day-moving average … and, generally…the ABSOLUTE stock market bottom occurs when that number is below 5%.
Second, he mentions that there are currently 218 companies worth more than $1 billion dollars…that LOSE $100 MILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR…and, 29 companies with more than a $10 billion dollar market cap…which, still can’t turn a profit. As he says…”all the silliness must go.”
Third, he points out that “Inflation appears in spikes. It resolves, fools people, and then it comes back” – with a chart, showing that – since the 1940’s – inflation never just occurred once, and then disappeared. In every circumstance through today – inflation will decline…people will celebrate by spending more money…and, THEN – inflation will re-appear for as long as a decade…all because of:
Fourth, the Velocity Of Money. This tracks how often each dollar is ACTUALLY SPENT – and THEN – how often that money circulates back within the economy. Because of that, Michael Burry notes that – despite the Federal Reserve taking money OUT OF THE ECONOMY by rising rates – the average dollar is now being spent more frequently with a higher money velocity – and, because of that, inflation will CONTINUE to remain high.
However…there IS some good news, in the fact that – NOW could be the great opportunity to invest, because…THIS where the money is made.
In terms of the AVERAGE bull market…if we DON’T include drops of less than 20%, the average bull market has lasted a whopping 9.1 years with a cumulative return of 476%.
And if we INCLUDE drops of LESS than 20%, which are more like minor hiccups along the way…the AVERAGE Bull Market still lasts an average of 4 year, with a cumulative return of 129%.
So, just given this context…even though, on average, bull markets do last longer than bear markets…history has shown us that volatility is extremely common, and seeing drops or gains of 20% in either direction isn’t as extreme as you would think.
Now, in terms of what Michael Burry is doing – he believes that “Free Cash Flow is totally on sale and ignored while former momentum stocks are coming down but not far enough. Value was about to take off for years despite more crash on the way” – suggesting that boring, staple, and profitable businesses will be the ones that outperform in the short term.
That’s why, I believe, it’s best to be cautious in a market like this and prepare for the worst…but also – don’t tailor your investment strategy to a plan that may, or may not happen. Just from what I’ve seen… too many people have lost MORE MONEY planning for “the inevitable crash” than those who keep buying on a regular basis, regardless of how the market trades..and, long term, that will continue to be my plan.
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