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INSIDER SELLING – FOLLOW MARKET SENTIMENT BLOG HERE: https://marketsentiment.substack.com/p/insider-purchase
While retails traders were celebrating the stock market’s best month since 2020, corporate insiders have begun SELLING THEIR HOLDINGS at the fastest pace since JANUARY, sending the signal that: MAYBE they’re preparing for another big drop.
After all, insider transactions have they’ve correctly predicted the next rally since 1992, even buying up the bottom just a month ago. Or, in other words…when insiders buy and sell stock on a LARGE SCALE…they tend to be right, at least in the short term…and, the BEST WAY to find these signals is through what’s known as “Cluster Buying.”
In terms of what’s happening NOW, there’s a LOT of skepticism in terms of the recent SP500 price increase, leading insiders to sell at a rate not last seen since January, and the fear that some people worry about the most: A BEAR MARKET RALLY.
This is a term that refers to a stock market increase of more than 5%, in the middle of an even larger downtrend…and, during bear markets…it’s actually incredibly common.
In fact, Investopedia notes that “Every bear market between 1901 and 2015, spawned at least one 5% rally…and rallies of 10% or more interrupted two-thirds of the 21 bear markets over that span”…or, basically, our market is performing right alongside with history.
It’s also noted that, the deeper the decline, the higher the rebound…for example, in 1929…the DowJones increased by 48%….before then falling 86% to a brand new bottom. The DotCom crash ALSO had 8 bear market rallies of at least 18%, and four gains of 30%, before then dropping even lower.
All of that is to say that, even though insiders are SELLING MORE SHARES than they’re BUYING…it could be a signal that we’re about to see another drop, and that THEY KNOW SOMETHING WE DON’T….OR, it could be the fact that they’re worried about slowing demand, they’re downsizing, and – it makes sense to take some chips off the table now that prices have started to recover.
This would allow them to be in a better financial position, should inflation CONTINUE to be an issue…but, regardless…there is NOT a one size fits all approach that’s right, 100% of time, in terms of predicting what we’re going to see.
That’s why, the best strategy…continues to be…drumroll…yet again…dollar cost averaging into the markets on a regular basis, regardless of where it trades. That means, you won’t get ahead of yourself and think “the worst is over, I can dump my life savings into SOFI stock because Jerome Powell saved the market” – but, you also won’t SELL EVERYTHING at a time where – potentially, we could be entering a new bull market and rising back near all time highs.
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