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Let’s discuss the 2023 recession and debt ceiling, why the United States spends so much money, and what this means for you, your money, and your investments – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | Follow my newsletter here: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter
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The Debt Ceiling:
Simply put: the “debt ceiling” is the MAXIMUM amount of money that the US Government is allowed to borrow, to pay for all of its obligations, like social security and medicare benefits, salaries, interest on the national debt, tax refunds, and a multitude of other responsibilities that a country needs to maintain. However, once this debt limit is reached, or – we hit the ceiling … all of those items can longer be funded to the point where, services slowly begin shutting down to conserve resources.
As of now, the United States is expected to reach their “debt limit” on Thursday, January 19th…after it was already raised by $2.5 trillion dollars back in December of 2021 – Although, what makes THIS time so unique is that it’s no longer a game of money, but instead, it’s a tug-of-war of negotiations.
In this case, In THIS case, one side wants their spending initiatives to pass, while the other wants spending to be REDUCED – and, they both have to agree if we’re to move forward. As the New York Times pointed out, “breaching the debt limit would lead to a first-ever default for the United States, creating financial chaos in the global economy. It would also force American officials to choose between continuing assistance like Social Security checks….and paying interest on the country’s debt”
If we look back in history….so far, the “worst” debt-ceiling standoff, which resulted in a lower credit rating, caused the markets to drop almost 20% in TOTAL until a resolution was drawn – from 1995 to 1996, the SP500 dropped about 4% – 2013 saw another 6% drop – and, over the last 10 years, we can see that there’s typically short term hesitation in the markets…until it’s eventually raised, and then..the stock market goes up right alongside with it.
So, the reality is, short term until this is resolved, investors may try to price in the slim, slim, slim chance of a government shut down – but, as we can see – realistically, they would NEVER allow the government to get to the point of defaulting on its debt, and – most likely, everything will carry on as usual, especially considering that we have until June to figure something until the “extraordinary measures”run out.
It’s probably not something to worry about, although – if you see it listed as a headline in the coming few days, weeks, or months, at least now you know WHY its become such a large talking point…and hopefully, this helps you understand a little more as to how dysfunctional the entire process really is.
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