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Let’s talk about the latest inflation data, what this means for the stock market and housing prices, and how you can use this information through 2023 – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan
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INFLATION NOVEMBER 2022:
Inflation DECLINED IN OCTOBER, to 7.7%…which, was BELOW EXPECTATIONS…and, 0.5% less than we saw the month prior. This was also the SMALLEST 12-MONTH READING SINCE JANUARY.
In fact, the Consumer Price Index rose 0.4% from the month prior, suggesting that – on a YEAR OVER YEAR BASIS, we could be actually be heading towards an inflation rate of LESS THAN 5% by this time in 2023.
We saw a NET DECLINE in the cost of medical care, apparel, used cars and trucks, gas, and energy. Everything ELSE, like food, shelter, and transportation still increased, but at a rate that was MUCH slower than the month before.
Once you take out food and energy, CORE INFLATION came in at “just” 6.3%, finally pulling back from it’s 40-year high. This was BELOW analyst expectations, and just like the last…SHELTER made up the MAJORITY of that increase, with Rent.com showing that, in September, housing payments increased by 8.8%.
On the news that inflation came in LOWER than expected, the Federal Reserve president of Philadelphia came on record to say that “I would be okay with taking a brief pause from rate hikes, seeing how things are moving. And then if we have to, we can continue to tighten.” This wound up leading to the LARGEST SINGLE-DAY RALLY of the SP500 since 2020…and, the stock market is beginning to price in the fact that the Federal Reserve MAY pause rate hikes throughout the beginning of 2023, as prices continue to come down.
Now, of course, Michael Burry has warned us, in the past, “Inflation appears in spikes. It resolves, fools people, and then it comes back” – with a chart, showing that – since the 1940’s – inflation never just occurred once, and then disappeared. In fact…In every circumstance through today – inflation will decline…people will celebrate by spending more money…and, THEN – inflation will re-appear for as long as a decade.
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