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Let’s talk about the latest Federal Reserve Meeting, their indicated rate hike for December 2022, and what this means for stocks, real estate, and the rest of the market – Enjoy! Add me on Instagram: GPStephan | MY NEWSLETTER: http://grahamstephan.com/newsletter
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THE FEDERAL RESERVE PIVOT:
2 weeks after every policy meeting – the Federal Reserve releases a detailed record of their discussion, in what’s known as the “FED Minutes.” This gives us a LOT of insight as to their stance on future monetary policy, upcoming rate hikes, and expectations for the near future – and, the most recent report gave us a LOT of juicy details.
To start, they admitted that – the most recent inflation report provided “very few signs that inflation pressures were abating” – implying that, they may need to keep rates high, LONGER than expected.
HOWEVER…it was also noted that “a substantial majority of participants judged that a slowing in the pace of increase would likely soon be appropriate” – and, that “soon” is giving people a LOT of hope that it might happen in their NEXT meeting, on December 14th.
If this occurs, it would be the FIRST SIGN of what’s called “The Federal Reserve PIVOT,” where they begin to REVERSE their rate-hike-tightening cycle that was starting at the beginning of the year, and – that would probably lead to a HUGE BOOST throughout the markets.
If you ask INVESTORS, they’re pricing in a 67% chance of a 50-basis-point rate hike in another 2 weeks…with, a 33% chance of a 75 basis point rate hike, just like we’ve seen throughout the last few months.
Now, OTHERS – like the St Louis FED President, believes that “the fed still has a ways to go,” and that interest rates will have to rise as high as 5% to get inflation under control…while others say that an outright “pause’ is off the table…but, all of this is ultimately going to depend on December’s inflation report…which, will be revealed a day before, on December 13th.
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