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They’re one of the world’s most PROMINENT global banks, with more than $1.5 Trillion under management, offices throughout the entire world, and a designation as one of the “systemically important financial institutions of 2022.”
However, all of this began just a few days ago, when the CEO of Credit Suisse made a statement that the bank “was at a critical moment,” and tried to reassure employees not to confuse the “day-to-day” stock price with firm’s “strong capital base and liquidity position”.
In addition to their stock price having declined 90% over the last decade, they’re about to undertake a MAJOR restructuring to try to return the company to profitability – but, in doing so, they need to raise capital – and some see that as a last-ditch effort to stay afloat – .much like Lehman Brothers did… right before their widely publicized downfall.
Once investors started digging deeper into company financials…critics warned about their path moving forward, declining revenue, and dwindling returns that could have a SIGNIFICANT impact on the entire market.
EVEN THOUGH their stock price has absolutely plummeted, investors are concerned, and credit default swaps skyrocketed to the highest level EVER – SOME analysts believe that a Lehman-Style moment is unlikely…and that internet speculation has gotten out of hand.
For example, JP Morgan went on record to say that the bank’s capital was healthy, other analysts say they’re in a “tight spot” – but, unlikely to fail, and CitiBank says – this isn’t 2008.
However, at the end of the day – it seems like this entire situation is turning into a self-fulfilling prophecy, where – the more people BELIEVE it’s going to fail, the lower its price goes, and the less leverage they have – to actually turn things around.
After all, they’re beginning to lose private bankers in Hong Kong…turnover is increasing…and, even a formerCredit Suisse trader himself tweeted: All rumors are false until OFFICIALLY denied.
That leads me to believe that – despite the sensationalized headlines – there IS a risk that these large banks could be in trouble…BUT…lets ALSO be realistic: They’ve grown to the point where, they could also be supported by government funding, in the event their downfall would negatively impact the global markets.
It’s also said that they currently have $100 BILLION DOLLARS of “Buffer Capital” – and, even though that can only go so far – there’s nothing that says they can’t receive additional help, on top of that.
So, all in all – YES…there IS risk of the bank defaulting, the global economy falling apart, and all of us pointing to Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank as the culprit…but, REALISTICALLY…it’s undetermined if the government would even let that happen in the first place…and, honestly…the most we can do at this point is to simply wait and see what happens.
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